Estimating attendance for a first-time event
Estimating attendance for a new event is a mix of research, comparable benchmarks, and conservative planning. Use multiple data points to create low/medium/high scenarios and plan logistics for the medium estimate.
Steps to estimate:
- Research similar local events and analyze their reported attendance.
- Survey your target audience via email, social media, or partner lists to gauge interest.
- Start with conservative conversion rates: of those who express interest, expect 20–40% to register and 60–80% of registrants to attend.
- Consider seasonality, competing events, and marketing reach when adjusting projections.
Create projection tiers:
- Conservative: 50–60% of maximum expected sign-ups
- Target: realistic number based on marketing plan and partnerships
- Optimistic: high-response scenario for scaling needs
Operational tips:
- Plan venue and catering for the target estimate, with scalable options (additional seating or food pickups).
- Monitor registrations and adjust marketing intensity to hit goals.
- Use early-bird incentives and limited ticket batches to create urgency and better forecasting.
Estimating is iterative—track registration patterns weekly and refine projections. For first-time events, prioritize flexibility and contingency so you can scale up or down without major cost penalties.